Call for Proposal Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Mitigation Potentials from Natural Climate Solutions in Indonesia 79 views

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Call for Proposal

Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Mitigation Potentials from Natural Climate Solutions in Indonesia

 

Background

While the energy sector as the second highest sector in Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) still relies largely on fossil fuels, natural climate solutions (NCS) offer strong opportunities to support the country in meeting its medium- and long-term climate goals. NCS is defined as the protection, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across forests and wetlands (mangrove and peatlands). The implementation of NCS do not only generate climate impact, but also protection of Indonesia’s natural forests that are home to important biodiversity and contribute to COVID-19 recovery and sustainable economy in Indonesia.

 

YKAN with partners have produced a series of analyses that examine the mitigation potentials from nine prioritized natural climate solutions (NCS) pathways in Indonesia. Our analysis was based on a full assessment of total NCS pathways suitable for Indonesia. The prioritized pathways are avoided forest conversion, avoided vegetation loss on peat, avoided peat decomposition, avoided peat fires, avoided mangrove conversion, reforestation, peat restoration, mangrove restoration and sustainable forest management (SFM). We applied NCS potential based on the historical baseline of each pathway during the 2009-2019 period, to estimate potential emission reduction by 2030. The analysis shows that the estimated NCS mitigation potential in Indonesia reaches 1,341 MtCO2e/year in 2030. This contributes to 160% and 113% of Indonesia’s NDC target by 2030 from all sectors under Counter Measure 1 and Counter Measure 2 scenario, respectively.  The highest potential is from avoided emissions or sequestration from peatlands (72%), followed by dryland (25%) and mangrove (3%). This maximum NCS potential is twofold the NDC target from the AFOLU sector. Even without any mitigation efforts from other sectors this potential NCS would surpass Indonesia’s emission reduction target as promised in NDC if implemented correctly and collectively

 

In-depth understanding of the potentials and relative merit of different pathways would support policy makers in developing policies that will enable Indonesia to achieve its NDC target and create a solid foundation for the long-term climate goal, as stated in the Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050.  The Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) is a core part of the evidence base to inform cost-effective NCS pathways to a low carbon emissions economy. MACC has recently attracted extensive attention and been increasingly applied in climate change policy. MACC presents mitigation actions to reduce GHG emissions in order of their cost-effectiveness. MACC is calculated by dividing the total cost of a mitigation project by the total mitigation achieved by the project, with both costs and mitigation assessed during the same time horizon. Marginal abatement cost curves can provide information related to the total mitigation that can be achieved at up to any given unit cost ($/ tCO2eyr-1). This is important for identifying projects whose unit cost is equal to or less than a given carbon price. MACC can provide an illustrative guide to demonstrate the benefits of the emissions trading system. It can help to guide the estimation of permit prices and carbon taxes used by policy makers and project implementers. For example, in Indonesia the emission reduction achieved from the FCPF (Forest Carbon Partnership Facility) for a REDD+ project implemented in East Kalimantan is currently given a value of USD 5/tonCO2e. MACC analyses also facilitate comparisons of the relative cost-effectiveness and mitigation potential of different NCS pathways and thus allow identifying cost-effective overall climate mitigation portfolios for different mitigation ambitions. Marginal abatement costs can be calculated using “bottom-up” or “top down” approach.

 

Objective:

The principal objective of this work to provide a comprehensive MACC analysis for the 9 NCS pathways as a set of land-based mitigation measures in Indonesia and ranking them according to their cost, from the least to the most expensive. Among the nine NCS pathways, which strategy would bring the highest climate mitigation impact and cost-effectiveness, to provide a better direction on NCS prioritization for Indonesia. This will require a comprehensive literature review, stakeholder consultative with main stakeholders, and data analysis

 

Deliverables:

  • Kick-off meeting for MACC analysis study
  • A comprehensive report detailing the methods and MACC analysis (written in English). This should be formatted as a paper for submission to a peer-reviewed journal equipped with details supplementary information
  • Dissemination of study results through 3 webinars based on ecosystems (peatlands, mangrove and upland)

 

Qualifications:

  • Advanced degree in economics or related field with additional expertise in natural environmental management and sustainable development seen as an asset.
  • 10 years of relevant professional experience in the economic studies on climate change particularly on AFOLU sectors
  • Strong interpersonal and collaboration skills with a particular ability to communicate with stakeholders
  • Fluency in English and excellent report writing skills are essential.

 

Timing:

October 2021 thru June 2022.

Budget:

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